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2024-12-13 05:28:22

Last Friday, A shares successfully stood at 3,400 points. At the weekend, Liu Changsong, the big V, said: 3,418 points is the top area in December, but this year it has risen by 3,500 points.In the morning, the Asia-Pacific stock market generally fell, but A shares once rose against the trend. I thought I would take an independent market, but I didn't expect it to be brought down at noon.


His judgment is based on insufficient quantity. When the turnover of 2W billion was maintained in November, A shares barely rebounded by 3500 once. At present, the turnover has been kept below 2W billion, so 3400 points is the top.Among the national debt and political debt, I chose the only political bond ETF in the two cities. Although the debt base is very safe and the risk is very small, the latter has a short duration compared with 30 years, and the short-term withdrawal is even smaller due to the negative impact. In addition, the government debt itself is also a "quasi-national debt", because of the credit risk compensation, it has a higher yield and a higher cost performance than the national debt.


In the morning, the Asia-Pacific stock market generally fell, but A shares once rose against the trend. I thought I would take an independent market, but I didn't expect it to be brought down at noon.And I don't want to bet on the confidence of the organization, but I don't want to be short, so I have switched my position from individual stocks to a sound debt base.Therefore, the logic of Liu Changsong's bearish position is wrong. I am also cautious in this position, but the reason why I am cautious is that the theme stocks are too hot and the blue chips have been stagnating, so there is a problem of switching market styles, not whether the market will fall. Because of the recent stagflation of blue chips, there is no momentum for the market to fall.

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